Looking ahead at the Defence Budget: Just one day to go... - Broadsword by Ajai Shukla - Strategy. Economics. Defence.

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Friday, 31 January 2025

Looking ahead at the Defence Budget: Just one day to go...

 

India has become the fifth largest economy of the world during the period 2021 to 2024


By Ajai Shukla

31st January 2025

 

The Budget Session began today with the President's Address to both houses of Parliament. A team from PRS Legislative analysed the President's Address in June 2024 to the Parliament. This note highlights key announcements in the President's Address, and the latest status of the initiatives announced. Here are the key findings that you may find interesting: 


1) In the last ten years, India has become the 5th largest economy and has grown at an average rate of 8 percent annually. India ranks at 140th position of 189 countries considering the GDP per capita figures. 


2) Profits of public sector banks have crossed Rupees 1.4 lakh crore in 2023-24. This is 35% higher than last year. In 2023-24, public sector banks had a 59% share in total deposits with the scheduled commercial banks. The corresponding share in 2013-14 was 76%.

 

3) Expenditure incurred by farmers is expected to be reduced and their income is expected to increase, the address mentioned. The average monthly income from crop production was Rs 3,932 in 2018-19, an annualised increase of 4.1% over 2012-13 (Rs 3,081). Average monthly expenditure on crop production by a cultivating agricultural household in 2012-13 was estimated to be Rs 2,192. In 2018-19, it rose to Rs 2,959, an annualised increase of 5.3%.

4) The address highlighted that In the past 10 years 7 new IITs, 16 IIITs, 7 IIMs, and 390 universities have been established. As of March 2023, 34% faculty positions were vacant across these centrally-funded higher education institutions. As of 2021-22, the PTR in higher education was 23:1 as against the recommended 15:1 (Parliamentary Standing Committee on Education in 2023).

 

5) The North-East will also be a hub of Made in India chips. Under the Semicon India programme, five semiconductor manufacturing units involving investments worth Rs 1.5 lakh crore have been approved. One of these units is to be in Morigaon, Assam.

6) The pace of construction of National Highways has more than doubled. The pace of construction since 2016-17 has been above 20 km/day. In 2014-15, it was 12 km/day and 37 km/day in 2020-21. As of December 2024, it is estimated to be 21 km/day for the financial year 2024-25.

 

7) The coverage of accident and life insurance is being expanded through the networks of Digital India and the Post Offices. In May 2015, the central government launched two schemes to enhance the access to life and accidental insurance in India.  As per IRDAI, the life insurance penetration in India declined from 3.2% in 2021-22 to 2.8% in 2023-24, the corresponding figure was around 1% for non-life insurance during the same period.

 

Economy and finance

 

Economic growth in 10 years. India has become the fifth largest economy of the world during the period 2021 to 2024. India has grown at an average rate of 8% annually. Today India alone is contributing 15% of global growth. The government is striving to make India the third largest economy in the world.

 

India became the fifth largest economy in the world in 2021–22 in terms of GDP at current prices in US dollars moving from the 10th largest in 2013-2014. In 2024, India’s GDP was about US$ 3.9 trillion. 

 

GDP is estimated to grow by 6.4% in 2024-25 (at constant prices), slower than in 2023-24 when it was 8.2%.

 

GDP per capita in 2024

 

Country

GDP (in USD trillion)

GDP per capita (in US dollars)

Remarks

In value

In rank

In value

In rank

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA

29.2

1

86,601

6

 

China

18.3

2

12,969

71

 

Germany

4.7

3

55,521

16

 

Japan

4.1

4

32,859

37

 

India

3.9

5

2,698

140

 

 

India’s GDP growth at constant prices

 

Year

GDP growth

 

 

 

 

2014-15

7.4%

 

2015-16

8.0%

 

2016-17

8.3%

 

2017-18

6.8%

 

2018-19

6.5%

 

2019-20

3.9%

 

2020-21

-5.8%

 

2021-22

9.7%

 

2022-23

7.0%

 

2023-24

8.2%

Provisional Estimates (PE)

2024-25

6.4%

First Advance Estimates (FAE)

(Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)

 

Defence and home affairs

 

Defence exports in the last decade, have increased more than 18 times to the level of ₹21,000 crore.

 

In 2023-24, India recorded defence exports worth ₹21,083, crore. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has set an export target of ₹50,000 crore by 2029. India’s key defence export include BrahMos missiles, Aakash missile system, armoured vehicles and body armour.

 

Steps taken by the government to increase exports are: 


a.     Simplifying standard operating procedure (SOP) for exports.  


b.     Introducing an open general export license in brackets OGEL and opening of overseas offices by defence public sector undertakings.


c.     India is now manufacturing, defence equipment worth more than ₹1,00,000 crore.


d.     Nearly 70 per cent of the total procurement of the defence forces has been sourced from Indian manufacturers. More than 40 ordinance factories have been restructured into seven defence sector enterprises, resulting in improvement of their capacity and efficiency.


e.     In 2023–24, indigenous defence production amounted to ₹1.27 lakh crore. This is an annualised increase of 12% from ₹46,429 crore in 2014-15. 

 

The ministry has set a target to achieve defence production worth three lakh crore rupees by 2029. In October 2024, the Ministry of Defence noted that 65% of defence equipment is now being manufactured within India.

 

Between 2012-13, and 2021–22, out of the total defence equipment required for the armed forces, 40% of the defence equipment was sourced from foreign vendors. During this period, acquisition of defence equipment from foreign sources increased at an annual rate of 5%, while indigenous equipment acquisition increased at an annual rate of 6%. In 2022-23, 264 capital acquisition contracts were signed with approximately 36% being acquired from foreign vendors.

 

Steps taken to increase domestic manufacturing of defence equipment include:


a.     Prioritising capital procurement from domestic sources under Defence Acquisition Procedure 2020


b.     Notification of five positive indigenisation list for placing certain items under import restriction,


c.     Simplification of industrial licensing process with longer validity periods 


d.     Increasing limit on FDI from 49% to 74% under automatic route.


e.     Establishing two Defence industrial Corridors in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.


f.      As of January 2025, 38,622 defence items were imported. Out of these 14,139, that is 37% of defence items, are approved for domestic production or indigenisation.

 

In October 2021, 41 ordinance factories were converted into seven Defence Public Sector Undertaking (DPSUs). DPSUs/ PSUs contributed to 79% of defence production in 2023-24 of the total exports in 2023-24 TPS contributed about 40% in 2023-24 exports by the new DPSUs increase to ₹1977 crores from 82,00,00,000 in 2022-23. Some major items exported by DPS use include petrol ships and helicopters engines, lightweight radars. The standing committee on defence noted that the import content for equipment manufactured by DPSUs, it recommended the ministry to take measures to make the defence public sector self reliant 

 

Table 2: financial performance of DPSUs, it recommended the ministry to take measures to make the defence public sector undertaking self reliant 


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