By Ajai Shukla
Business Standard, 10th July 20
In a blow to hopes of a Chinese withdrawal in the Hot Spring area of Ladakh, negotiators from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have refused to withdraw after crossing several kilometres (km) into India’s side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Government sources say local military commanders from the two sides have not agreed on the creation of a demilitarized, 2-kilometre-wide buffer zone. This would separate Indian and Chinese troops who are currently deployed eyeball-to-eyeball in the vicinity of Patrolling Point 15 (PP-15) and PP-17A, along the Chang Chenmo River.
Near PP-15, where an estimated 1,000 Chinese soldiers have intruded 4 km across the LAC, and extended a road 3 km into Indian-claimed territory, they are being blocked from further ingress by a similar number of Indian troops.
At the nearby Gogra Post, near India’s PP-17A, about 1,500 soldiers from either side are in confrontation after the PLA intruded about 2 km into the Indian side of the LAC.
The Chinese are flatly refusing to withdraw from their positions, arguing that they are on their own side of the LAC and it is up to the Indian side to withdraw.
The basis of negotiations, which is a simultaneous withdrawal of one km by both sides, is disadvantageous to the Indian side, because the Chinese have already intruded 2-4 km into Indian-claimed territory. Consequently the entire buffer zone would be set up on Indian territory. Yet, the Chinese are refusing to concede even this.
Anticipating the need to back up their intruding troops in the Gogra Post area, a large number of PLA troops have concentrated on the Chinese side of the LAC across from India’s PP-18, 19, 20, 21, 22 and 23, which is east of Gogra Post. Chinese artillery guns have been observed deployed across the LAC from PP-19.
With the Chinese also refusing to reverse their intrusions in May-June into the Depsang (12-15 km) and Pangong Tso (8 km) areas, the only sector where disengagement has been agreed is the Galwan River valley. There, the Chinese agreed to withdraw on terms disadvantageous to India, involving the concession of one km of territory at PP-14.
In case the Chinese continue refusing to withdraw, they would have effectively shifted the LAC to India’s disadvantage all along the Eastern Ladakh border.
The LAC would have shifted westwards by 12-15 km at PP-10, 11, 11A, 12 and 13 in the Depsang area; by one km at PP-14 in Galwan; by 2-4 km at PP-15, 17 and 17A; and by 8 km in the Pangong Tso northern bank.
This would be the largest loss of territory to China since the 1962 war, when the PLA captured, and has since retained, some 3,000 square km of territory in Ladakh.
Army sources believe China may be acting preemptively to forestall any Indian advance into Aksai Chin, through which their strategic Xinjiang-Tibet Highway (numbered G-219) passes. Safeguarding G-219 involves closing off India’s “northern route” through Daulat Beg Oldi and Depsang, shutting Indian access to Depsang by interdicting the road from Darbuk along the Shyok River.
The PLA would also like to close off Indian access through the “central route” from the Hot Spring area to Kongka La and Lanak La and from the Pangong Tso, via Khurnak Fort. Finally, the PLA is looking to shut off the “southern route” from Demchok, which provides India the shortest access to Highway G-219.
Chinese going ad per their strategic need and we going as per local macho strategic need. 6 years taken 7s back to 1960. Hope new indian understand the situation.
ReplyDeleteCredibility is like virginity, once lost ,cannot be reclaimed.Regrettebly,what ever little credibility you had as a ex Army, lost all.Goodbye, your subjectivity and self interest getting better of you.
ReplyDeleteYou think China's PLA is trying to influence the indian behavior with Pakistan?
ReplyDeleteAny chance of india Pakistan skirmishes on a serious level?
Ajai, I follow you on your strategic analysis, interventions and write up, specifically wrt the recent face off along the LAC in Eastern Ladhak. While, I have no reason to suspect or disbelieve what you mention in your blog about the LAC being redrawn and a substantial swathe of territory being ceded to the PRC post 1962, it leaves me and many others genuinely confounded about what is the truth ? And if what you write is the actual ground position then why is the majority of the strategic affairs expert fraternity and the neutral media not seized of this truth and they not mention and write or speak about it as you do? For the sake of clarity you need to stand up and count at an appropriate forum to drum the truth for the vast majority of countrymen who are at a loss and do want to be kept abreast with the real ground position.
ReplyDeleteYour's is a rare honest and brave voice. Please keep it up.
ReplyDeleteMr.,colonel, ajai shukla, how would you drive out chinese had you been the commanding officer there, or you were the( NSA )advisor to the Gov't of india
ReplyDeleteAjai shukla would be a one-man army penetrating and blitzing the Chinese all the way to Beijing!!
DeletePerhaps, a surgical strike and chest thumping will do the trick. Since when are unarmed soldiers patrolling the borders? Did government order it? Which government? Previous one? How did the Army agree to it?
ReplyDeleteGOOD MAP, BUT WINTER IS COMING FOR OUR TWO DIVISIONS THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL
ReplyDeleteI commented here previously a week or two ago (was not published) that China this year created a new buffer Zone based on the Nov 1959 map given to Nehru by Zhou Enlai - China now has an adjustment added (further nibbling) at Gulwan valley.
The PLA in GALWAN expects the Indian troops to move back an additional 1.5km for a total of 2.5km right up to the Shoyok confluence.
On the lake India has to move back to finger 2. (Area 4 to 2 to be the new buffer)
At Hot Springs Broadsword has got it right, the Chang Chemo river to be the the buffer, Indian troops to move back an additional 1.5 Kilometre from the Position shown on Broadswords excellent map.
THIS REPRESENTS A HUGE LAND GRAB BY CHINA AND AND MODI QUIETLY ACQUIESCENCES TO THIS OUTRAGE!
Major General Liu Lin Is a party member and a darling of the political top brass, his job is to defend possible Indian incursion into this area of Tibet, there are big things planned, possibly even a railway from Kasgar along the `highway.
Major General Liu Lin deployment plans had been necessary due to a number of Indian infrastructure builds, The revised plans it seems had been agreed previously by PLA HQ - it seems all this has been over a year in planning by China.
Being an artillery officer Gen Lin has positioned battery just beyond point 14 at GALWAN, The DBO road and culverts have been mapped to these guns. Air defence for the area has been put into position.
PLA Artillery as you see on Broadswords map Is also positioned at Hot Springs.
The `PLA are building winter accommodation for their troops with all facilities, similar to the prefabricated ones at Doklam.
UNLIKE THE INDIAN ARMY THE PLA TROOPS HAVE ACESS TO THEIR ALL WEATHER ROADS AND PLA LOGISTICAL SUPPLY LINES ARE VERY MUCH SHORTER
WILL INDIA BE ABLE TO BUILD ADEQUATE WINTER ACCOMMODATION? WILL TWO DIVISIONS REMAIN IN THE AREA?
THIS IS GOING TO BE A LONG LOGISTIC SUPPLY CHAIN HAUL (CLOSED IN WINTER) TO LADAKH FOR THE ARMY.
WHERE IS THE BUDGET FOR THIS?
HOPING TO FIND OUT WHERE THE STORY GOES FROM HERE! VIA THIS EXCELLENT BLOG AND BUSINESS STANDARD
Your courage and integrity of reporting is of a high order ... Andh Bhakts need to learn
ReplyDeleteMore have been demanded by China and given away by India than you have disclosed here Ajai Shukla Ji.
ReplyDeleteThis means what RG is talking is right. China, indeed, intruded in our territory !!!
ReplyDeleteAn eye opener for all those false claims of Chinese withdrawal .
ReplyDeleteLet there be peace 🙏 it's American dollar war let them fight till then strengthen our defence and offence.
ReplyDeleteAll humbug
ReplyDeleteStay safe, Ajai. You are doing great service to the nation by providing truth. ��
ReplyDeleteStill Modi lies and godi media proofs those lies are truth. Shame on bjp govt
ReplyDeleteNSR says ---
ReplyDeleteMain stream papers says chinese PLA is withdrawing from all Patrol Points including some at Pangong Tso Lake...
But your narrative has been very consistently opposite to mainstream media...
Why you are not listing any sources of your serving generals or other officers that you prominently quote without names ?
Isn't it fanning fires?
Also you need publish much bigger and viewable images for people to understand...
To Ajai-Sir, is the LAC guarded in a chain-like manner by the PLA? If so, that would require lots of troops and backups to plug all holes. But if the LAC is porous then why does IA need to sit opposite to PLA positions, can't we flank them? or better yet encircle them? If we truly believe they are in our claimed land, then what's preventing an encirclement? Anyway the standoff is without firearms! Since I am not a military guy, I think naively. And maybe its better to think out of the box, than reciprocate to every PLA moves in a like manner.
ReplyDeleteBut why we are agreeing to such de escalation .Why we are in so much hurry.Its very unfortunate that after losing 20 soldiers we are agreeing to their terms.
ReplyDeleteI dont know why Indian Military would not listen to what Ajai Shukla is telling them since May.Unfortunately Indian politico Military leadership is not realizing that hiding truth would accentuate their problems and make it difficult to bargain with the Chinese. Lack of will at all levels,from Brigade upto 14 Corps and from CDS upto Modi has compromised Indian bargaining position
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering what the army has to say about their (in)action on such large scale intrusions, the dead body bags and whether they even feel the need to come clean on how they allowed this to happen.
ReplyDeleteTo Rawat and everyone down below, respect is earned, not demanded. Its another thing you and probably armies around the world, regardless of the incumbent political dispensation, are lucky to not be questioned for your gross incompetence like the rest of us in the civilian world have to.
SIR IF THIS IS TRUE , PLEASE APPERE ON ANY MEDIA CHANNEL AND LET THE NATIONAL KNOW IN YOUR WORDS
ReplyDeleteI agree with Col Shukla in toto. However will advise him to be careful about his security. In the era of encounters, I hope Col Shukla does not become a victim. Everyone knows that the Chinese have taken 40to50 SqKms of area ( finger 4 to 8) opposite Pangong tso and will perhaps not give back but we have helped the Chinese by making a statement to the contrary. I admire the courage of conviction shown by Col Ajay Shukla.God bless you Ajay.
ReplyDeleteAjai Shukla, the Chinks have extended their claim line much beyond your map.
ReplyDeleteAt hot springs the already send patrols right into the part shown on your map as undisputed Indian territory.
The only way to throw them out is by force
I made an earlier comment but it never appeared till now! So repeating ....1. The 1000 years old Chinese chess-like game called WEI QUE also gave inputs to Mao to plan out his strategies and tactics of guerrilla warfare explained so well in his Little Red Book. Our PM's advisers even today do not read and understand the above literature.They base their strategies on Nehru and are influenced still by outdated and impractical non violence - which with due respects to the ONE Gandhi- human race has not evolved toward at all.
ReplyDelete2.The RED BOOK talks of knowing the enemy well. China does with all its neighbors. The Chinese Ambassador in Dhaka is an exponent of Rabindra Sangeet, which he sings beautifully at state functions and wins the hearts of the local ruling elite. The Chinese Ambassador in Nepal is as adroit, albeit differently in Kathmandu. And over the decades the PLA have proved their mettle.
3.The game of WEI QUE stipulates surrounding the enemy at different points, confronting but never escalating to create major fireworks. Mentally disturbing . angering and disjointing with strategic pokes.
4. Our Gita/Mahabharata provides us innumerable examples of knowing the enemies well enough to beat the 'shit' out of them. Kautaliya and even 'the Prince' political philosophy have extolled such virtues.
My point is why should current PM advisers deprive themselves of this benefit of understanding and practicing the LITTLE RED BOOK? Why must we be at the receiving end of each confrontation with the Chinese? The article indicates this shortcoming again and it does not bring happiness. It confirms the sustenance of a totally comprador Ruling Elite even after the Congress party is in doldrums and appears rudderless.
Ok- Our defense preparations of the past, courtesy BOFORS, Quattarochi and other sagas, have dis-enabled us to meet the Chinese eye to eye today. But given the Modi sagacity, motivation and the high decibels we hear at most national meetings of our future, surely we must expect something different from our PM say within the next 2 years at least? He must have a hidden agenda to beat these Chinks to pulp. Alternatively he is as big a POLITICAL FRAUD as our past rulers, with a few exceptions. Let us give him and his team the benefit of doubt yet again as we did with demonetization and the initial mismanagement with the walking migrant labor force, as we have. (The PRINT newspaper e-magazine in its very latest salvo has made such forgiving comments).
But the little RED BOOK even the RSS must understand if it is to galvanize public opinion proactively for converting the current demographic disaster into a demographic dividend. No point in pretense. Mr. Shukla's article brings feelings of hopes with possibilities of even worst scenario case....
Spot on with your accurate analysis. You have stuck to your narrative for the past few months and not wavered. The paid media is still trying to defend the indefensible. Keep it up. And we stick by the motto, Never Give In.
ReplyDeleteSir, you reporting is a eye opener but in our India Godi media are spreading folse propaganda of govt about no intrusions & disengagement also to washing the brain of Andhabhakt. Keep it up sir. Salute you for the reporting the reality.🙏
ReplyDeleteDear Sir, You are still a true soldier fighting with pen. Inspired to listen to such a noble soul. "Dharma rakshitah dharmah": Righteousness protects one who practices it. Keep it up. May your words inspire our countrymen to practice and fight for truth. I pray for Your well being.
ReplyDeleteAjayji can you show recent satelite image of Gogra and Hotspring where you said Chinese have refused to step back 2kms, yours are all talks and no proof to show the authenticity. You are blaming the PM, Army that all are bluffing , and chinese have not withdrawn. How do we believe you?
ReplyDeleteHow are you so sure that this is the factual position is somebody feeding you information I am sure you wouldn't have gone there when this crisis started
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