Russia eyes $8 billion in defence deals: S-400, Krivak frigates and Kamov helicopters

By Ajai Shukla

Business Standard, 5th Oct 18

With American having displaced Russia over the preceding decade as India’s largest supplier of weaponry, the balance could be restored significantly in the summit meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in New Delhi on Friday.

Possible announcements relate to the supply of five S-400 Triumf air defence units for the Indian Air Force (IAF) for some $4.5 billion; four Krivak III-class frigates for the navy for about $2 billion, and a $1.5 billion contract to build 200 Kamov-226T light helicopters in Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) with technology transferred from Russian Helicopters. 

If all this is finalised, Russia would benefit from about $8 billion worth of defence orders. This would be half of what America has won in a decade. 

Standing in the way of Indian purchases from Russia is an American law passed last year – “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” (CAATSA).

Passed by the US Congress to force President Donald Trump’s hand against Russia, CAATSA binds the US administration to impose sanctions against countries that engage in “significant transactions” with Russian, Iranian and North Korean defence and intelligence entities. 

All three contracts in the pipeline with Russia – the S-400 system, frigates and, to a lesser extent, helicopters – could potentially be considered “significant transactions”.

However, after hectic Indian lobbying, Washington has created a path for its president to grant a waiver from CAATSA for close partners like India and Vietnam, which have traditionally been dependent on Russian weaponry, and cannot be reasonably expected to break that dependency suddenly.

It remains to be seen whether Trump will invoke a waiver for India. Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman indicated in August that there was a modus vivendi between New Delhi and Washington, stating: “Both the US secretary of defence and secretary of state have displayed understanding [of Indian interests].”

The S-400 Triumf (NATO designation: SA-21 Growler) is a versatile air defence system that can detect incoming enemy aircraft while they are 600 kilometres away and shoot them down as they approach within 400 kilometres. 

An S-400 unit located near Delhi for protecting the capital would be able to shoot down Pakistani aircraft even before they cross the border to India, and Chinese aircraft while they were still in Tibetan or Nepalese air space.

Similarly, an S-400 unit deployed to protect India’s petroleum refineries and dock infrastructure around Jamnagar, in Gujarat, would be able to engage Pakistani fighters as soon as they took off from Karachi.

Russia also markets the S-400 as a defence against incoming ballistic missiles, presumably nuclear-tipped. But experts assess the S-400 is effective only against short and medium range ballistic missiles, and ineffective against intermediate range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, which travel at far greater speeds.

Sitharaman says Russia will deliver the S-400 within four years of signing the contract. But Moscow sources say, given keen interest from countries like Turkey and China, such a delivery schedule requires India to sign a contract right away.

Krivak III frigates

The Indian Navy, which is short of warships and building capacity, is negotiating to buy four Krivak III-class frigates from Russia, to supplement six similar warships bought earlier.

Two of these 4,000-tonne warships are lying almost fully built in Yantar Shipyard in Kaliningrad, Russia. For those, New Delhi and Moscow have negotiated a price of under $1 billion. They could be delivered to India, as soon as they are fitted with Ukrainian Zorya gas turbine engines – which Ukraine refuses to supply Russia but has agreed to route via India.

However, agreement has remained stalled on the cost of building the remaining two frigates in Goa Shipyard Ltd (GSL), which India has mandated. Building in India, would add on costs such as technology transfer, transferring raw materials and systems from Russia to Goa, establishing building infrastructure in GSL and indigenising parts of the warship.

Kamov-226T choppers

In 2015, on Putin’s personal request, Modi agreed to buy 200 Kamov-226T utility helicopters for the IAF and army, without competitive bidding. 

HAL and Russian Helicopters have established a joint venture to build the Kamov in Tumkur. After supplying 60 choppers fully built from Russia, the Tumkur factory will build the other 140.

With manufacturing infrastructure established, Russian Helicopters would be in pole position for winning another billion dollar contract for 111 naval utility helicopters, which is already under procurement.